中方限制电池技术出口将对中美欧日韩电动汽车竞争带来哪些影响？

比亚迪超越特斯拉成为全球最大电动汽车生产商

一、CNN关注中方对电动汽车电池生产关键技术实施出口限制

美国有线电视新闻网2025年7月17日报道，中国对电动汽车电池生产的关键技术实施了出口限制，此举旨在巩固其在该领域的主导地位，而该领域正是中国在全球电动汽车竞争中保持领先的重要支撑。

多项用于制造电动汽车电池以及加工锂（电池所需的关键矿物）的技术被纳入政府的出口管制清单。

中国商务部在一份声明中表示，被列入该清单意味着向海外转移这些技术（例如通过贸易、投资或技术合作等方式）需要获得政府颁发的许可证。

这些新的管制措施与三个月前针对某些稀土元素及其磁体的类似限制相呼应。稀土不仅是用于电动汽车的生产，还是用于消费电子产品和战斗机等军事装备的关键材料。在反制美国的新一轮的贸易战中，中国在稀土供应链中的主导地位已成为其最有力的工具之一。

在竞争激烈的全球电动汽车市场中，中国已成为领先者，部分原因在于其凭借从原材料加工到电池制造的完整供应链，有能力研发出高性能、高性价比的电池。

全球众多汽车制造商在其车辆中使用中国的电动汽车电池。市场研究和咨询公司赛恩伊研究（SNE Research）的数据显示，中国电动汽车电池制造商至少占据了67%的全球市场份额。

这项最新的许可要求于1月份首次提出，商务部表示，这些限制措施“旨在维护国家经济安全和发展利益，促进国际经济技术合作”。

中国江西的一家电动汽车充电设备生产线

二、中国电池制造大厂与国外的合作

中国的宁德时代是全球最大的电动汽车电池生产商，也是特斯拉的主要供应商，其在德国和匈牙利设有工厂，并计划与菲亚特和克莱斯勒的母公司Stellantis在西班牙建立合资工厂。此外，它还将技术授权给福特在密歇根州正在建设的电动汽车电池工厂使用。

与此同时，中国电动汽车巨头比亚迪自己也生产电池，其2024年的电动汽车销量已超过特斯拉，成为全球最大的电动汽车制造商，其电动汽车生产设施遍布全球，从匈牙利、泰国到巴西均有分布。

而中国另一家主要的电动汽车电池制造商国轩高科，计划在美国的伊利诺伊州建设一座生产工厂。

宁德时代的麒麟电池

三、新措施主要限制哪些技术出口？将对全球未来的电动车及电池生产产生哪些影响？

在新宣布的技术出口限制措施中，一部分涉及磷酸铁锂电池（一种锂离子电池）的正极生产技术。过去五年，磷酸铁锂电池因其价格较低且安全性较高，在电动汽车中的应用日益普及。另一部分措施则侧重于锂的加工、精炼和提取。

英国研究公司快市场（Fastmarkets）表示，中国在全球磷酸铁锂电池生产和锂加工领域占据主导地位。去年，中国在磷酸铁锂产能方面占据94%的市场份额，在全球锂加工产量中占70%。

艾德技术克斯研究公司（IDTechEx）的研究副总裁詹姆斯·埃德蒙森告诉美国有线电视新闻网，尽管磷酸铁锂电池的能量密度较低，但与常见的镍锰钴电池相比，其成本低得多，这使其成为“低成本车辆的主要选择”，而且欧盟和美国的汽车制造商也有扩大采用该电池的计划。中国在磷酸铁锂生产领域的主导地位意味着“即使是在国外生产的磷酸铁锂，中国供应商通常也会在磷酸铁锂正极前驱体的生产中发挥重要作用”。

埃德蒙森补充说，中国在该技术方面拥有“显著优势”，比亚迪的“超级E平台”就体现了这一点，该平台承诺仅需5分钟充电就能行驶250英里。这项技术优于特斯拉的超级充电桩，后者需要15分钟才能充到可行驶200英里的电量。

宁德时代也在今年4月推出了更具竞争力的产品：一款升级后的磷酸铁锂电池，在相同的充电时间下，续航里程更长，可达320英里。

对位研究（Counterpoint Research）的副总监莉兹·李表示，这些限制“似乎针对的是上游工艺技术，而非电池电芯和模组制造”。她说，由于宁德时代在德国和匈牙利的工厂专注于电芯和模组生产，且似乎没有在当地复制受限制的工艺，因此短期影响可能有限。

但她认为，中国技术出口限制措施这有可能会促使美国、欧盟及其他国家加快提升前驱体材料本地化和金属精炼能力的步伐。比如，美日韩已经出台“电池供应链倡议”，计划2030年前建成不依赖中国的正极材料产能（目标占全球35%）；欧盟也通过“关键原材料法案”，要求2030年锂加工本地化率达80%。

实际上，商务部近期对电动汽车电池关键技术实施出口限制是维护中国在电动汽车电池产业链安全与全球竞争优势的战略举措。

一是构建技术护城河。中国此次限制的磷酸铁锂正极材料制备技术（如压实密度≥2.58g/cc的第四代产品）和锂加工技术（如卤水提锂工艺），均属于全球电池产业链的“卡脖子”环节。通过许可证管理（如宁德时代向福特授权需政府审批），中国将核心技术转化为战略资源，以防止“技术外流—产能转移—市场萎缩”的恶性循环。

二是应对其他国家对中国的技术遏制。美国《通胀削减法案》设置电池材料本地化比例门槛，欧盟拟以“技术换补贴”要求中企转让专利，韩国LG Chem加速研发无前驱体磷酸铁锂技术，日本丰田推进全固态电池商业化。中国此举既是对西方技术围堵的反制，也是对全球产业链重构的主动布局。例如，限制锂辉石提锂技术出口，直接影响澳大利亚、阿根廷等锂资源国的深加工能力，巩固中国在锂化工环节的70%全球份额。

三是既限制关键技术流失又坚持开放合作。政策明确允许向“碳中和合作伙伴”出口特定技术（如储能用磷酸铁锂电池），但对涉及军事应用的锂合金制备技术实施严格管控。这种“选择性开放”既避免全面脱钩，又为技术定价权争夺留足空间。例如，宁德时代向福特授权的磷酸铁锂技术专利费达每千瓦时（kWh）1.2美元，较行业平均水平高出40%。

政策配套建立了“技术出口风险预警系统”，对涉及敏感技术的海外投资实施全流程监控。例如，国轩高科在伊利诺伊州工厂的工艺设计需经商务部、科技部联合审查，确保不包含受限制的锂辉石提锂技术。这种“预防性管控”有效降低技术泄露风险，同时为企业合规提供明确指引。

与此同时，鼓励和支持企业通过“一带一路”新能源合作项目（如巴西电动汽车产业园），将技术标准与基建投资捆绑输出，形成“技术—市场—规则”三位一体的竞争优势。

中国电池技术出口限制本质上是全球新能源革命中的“技术主权战争”。其影响已超越单纯的贸易范畴，虽然短期内可能引发供应链震荡和技术竞争加剧；但长期来看，它将推动全球电池产业向技术多元化、区域化方向发展，最终形成“中国主导的磷酸铁锂体系”与“欧美日韩主导的高端电池体系”并存的新格局。在此过程中，中国能否将技术优势转化为规则优势，将是决定这场博弈胜负的核心变量。

China puts new restrictions on EV battery technology in latest move to consolidate dominance. By John Liu, CNN. July 17, 2025.

China has put export restrictions on technologies critical for producing electric vehicle batteries, in a move to consolidate its dominance in the sector that has contributed to the country’s lead in the global EV race.

Several technologies used to manufacture EV batteries and process lithium, a critical mineral for batteries, were added to the government’s export control list.

Inclusion on the list means transferring the technologies overseas – such as through trade, investment, or technological cooperation – will require a government-issued license, according to a statement by the country’s Commerce Ministry.

The new controls mirror similar restrictions introduced just three months ago on certain rare earth elements and their magnets – critical materials used not only in EV production, but also in consumer electronics and military equipment such as fighter jets. China’s dominance of the rare earths supply chain has emerged as among its most potent tools in a renewed trade war with the United States.

China has emerged as a leading player in the competitive global EV market, thanks in part to its ability to develop high-performance, cost-effective batteries through its comprehensive supply chain, from raw material processing to battery manufacturing.

Huge numbers of car manufacturers around the world use Chinese EV batteries in their vehicles. Chinese EV battery makers accounted for at least 67% of the global market share, according to SNE Research, a market research and consultancy firm.

First proposed in January, the latest licensing requirements have cast uncertainty over Chinese EV makers’ overseas expansion plans, particularly as markets like the European Union have employed tariffs on Chinese car exports to push them to set up shop there. Many Chinese battery makers also have plans to localize production in markets such as Southeast Asia and the US.

The Commerce Ministry said the restrictions “aim to safeguard national economic security and development interests, and promote international economic and technological cooperation.”

Liz Lee, an associate director at Counterpoint Research, said the move “deepens the emerging geopolitical tech decoupling beyond materials to process IP (intellectual property).” She added that this could accelerate efforts by the US, EU and others to boost localization of precursor materials and metal refining capabilities.

China’s CATL, the world’s largest EV battery producer and a key supplier of Tesla, has plants in Germany and Hungary and has plans for a joint venture factory in Spain with Stellantis, the owner of Fiat and Chrysler. It is also licensing its technology to be used in a Ford EV battery plant under construction in Michigan.

Meanwhile, Chinese EV giant BYD, which manufactures its own battery and surged past Tesla in 2024 sales to become the world’s largest EV maker, has EV production facilities around the world, from Hungary and Thailand to Brazil.

And Gotion, another major EV battery maker in China, has plans to build a production plant in Illinois.

Analysts said the true impact of the new export controls remains uncertain, as details are still unclear.

Lee noted the restrictions “appear to target upstream process technologies… rather than battery cell and module manufacturing.”

Since CATL’s plants in Germany and Hungary focus on cell and module production and do not appear to replicate the restricted processes locally, the near-term effect may be limited, she said.

For BYD, which only assembles battery packs overseas and does not manufacture battery cells abroad, the controls do not appear to affect operations at this stage, Lee added.

Vincent Sun, senior equity analyst at Morningstar covering China’s EV sector, said the ultimate impact would depend on how easily companies can obtain permits – something that “may take some extra time to see.”

CNN has reached out to CATL, BYD, Gotion and Ford for comment.

China’s dominance in EV batteries

One part of the newly announced restrictions surrounds the battery cathode production technology for the making of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, a type of lithium-ion battery that has become increasingly popular in EVs in the last five years for its lower price and greater safety. Another part focuses on the processing, refinement and extraction of lithium.

China dominates the production of LFP batteries and the processing of lithium globally, according to Fastmarkets, a United Kingdom-based research company. Last year, it held 94% market share for LFP production capacity and provided 70% of global processed lithium production.

But while LFP batteries amounted to 40% of the global EV market by capacity, adoption of them is more prevalent in EVs made by Chinese manufacturers than elsewhere, according to Adamas Intelligence, a data analysis and consultancy firm focusing on critical minerals and batteries.

James Edmondson, vice president in research at IDTechEx, a research firm, told CNN that despite LFP’s lower energy density, its much lower cost, compared with its common alternative battery made of nickel, manganese, and cobalt, has made it “a staple in lower-cost vehicles” and there are plans for greater adoption by EU and US automakers.

China’s dominance in LFP production means that “even for LFP produced outside of China, Chinese suppliers would still often play a part in the production of precursors to LFP cathodes,” he said.

China holds a “significant lead” in the technology itself, as shown by BYD’s “Super E-Platform” that promised a 250-mile range on just a five-minute charge, Edmondson added. The technology outperforms Tesla’s Superchargers, which take 15 minutes to deliver 200 miles.

Not to be outdone, CATL followed in April with a more competitive product, an upgraded LFP battery that provides an even longer range of 320 miles with the same charging time.